Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/09/03) Currency Strength/Weakness Meter
9/03/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – Here are the strongest and weakest major currencies for the past week (August 30 – September 03, 2010), based upon relative percentage price change against each other from the beginning of this past trading week to the end of the week. This information can be used to identify possible trends and potential pairings of the currencies. The list is ordered from strongest (best performing) to weakest (worst performing):
Strongest
1) AUD (Australian dollar)
2) CHF (Swiss franc)
3) CAD (Canadian dollar)
4) JPY (Japanese yen)
5) EUR (euro)
6) USD (U.S. dollar)
7) GBP (British pound)
Weakest
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Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/09/02) USD/JPY Double Bottom During Downtrend
(Please click on the forex chart thumbnail to enlarge)
9/02/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Thursday (9/02/2010) has formed an approximate double-bottom low in the 83.60 price region. This occurs within the context of a strong and continuing downtrend extending from the early June high. This downtrend is currently still valid, despite the false break to the upside late last week. The key immediate upside resistance level to watch above the noted downtrend line continues to reside in the 85.00 price region. A breakout to the upside above 85.00 would place the current accelerated downtrend in jeopardy, potentially targeting further upside resistance around 86.40. In the event of a breakdown below the double-bottom low around 83.60, price action will have established a new 15-year low and confirmed a downtrend continuation, potentially targeting further downside in the 82.00 price region.
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/09/02) USD/CAD Settles Above Support
(Please click on the forex chart thumbnail to enlarge)
9/02/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – USD/CAD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Thursday (9/02/2010) has settled above 1.0470 support once again after having just descended from a key resistance re-test in the 1.0670 price region, which formed a double-top high. This all occurs within the context of a short-term parallel uptrend channel extending from the early August low, and after price action broke out above a key downtrend resistance line extending back to the May high. In the event of a pronounced bounce off the current 1.0470 area support, price could once again target the key 1.0670 resistance region. In the event of a strong breakdown below the current support, immediate dynamic support can be found at the bottom border of the current parallel uptrend channel. Further downside support resides around the key 1.0300 price region.
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/09/01) AUD/USD Breaks Out
(Please click on the forex chart thumbnail to enlarge)
9/01/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – AUD/USD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Wednesday (9/01/2010) has broken out above several resistance levels, establishing a new 3-week high in the process. This occurs after price action broke out above an important parallel downtrend channel last week, corrected back down to re-test key 0.8850 area support as well as the top border of the broken downtrend channel, and then shot up from that support base. Currently, price action has broken out tentatively above 0.9070 area resistance. In the event of further bullish momentum on this run, price could target further upside in the 0.9200 price region, the area of the most recent major high reached in early August.
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/08/31) USD/CAD Hits Key Resistance
(Please click on the forex chart thumbnail to enlarge)
8/31/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – USD/CAD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Tuesday (8/31/2010) has hit a key resistance level in the 1.0670 price region, a level that has been reached and respected several times in the recent past. This occurs after price made a pronounced bullish bounce up off 1.0470 region support on Monday. Currently, price is within the confines of a short-term parallel uptrend channel extending from the early August 1.0100 area low. In the event of a strong breakout above the noted 1.0670 resistance, price could begin targeting key upside resistance in the 1.0850 price region, which represents the area of the last major high reached in late May.
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/08/31) GBP/USD Potentially Targets 1.5200 Downside
(Please click on the forex chart thumbnail to enlarge)
8/31/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Tuesday (8/31/2010) has dropped to approach support in the 1.5350 price region. This occurs within the context of a relatively choppy descent from the 6-month high just under 1.6000 reached in early August. This descent has formed a clear downtrend resistance line extending back to the mid-August high. In the event of a strong breakdown below the noted 1.5350 support, a continuation of the new downtrend will have been confirmed, with a key downside support target in the 1.5200 price region. Dynamic upside resistance within the context of the current downtrend continues to reside around the noted downtrend resistance line.
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/08/30) EUR/CHF On Brink of All-Time Low
(Please click on the forex chart thumbnail to enlarge)
8/30/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – EUR/CHF (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Monday (8/30/2010) has descended to re-approach the all-time low of 1.2970 that was established just last week. This occurs within the context of an overall long-term downtrend for the pair that has been in place for almost three years. In the event of a breakdown below the strong support imposed by this all-time 1.2970 low, price could potentially target further downside support initially in the 1.2800 price region, which coincides approximately with a 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the most recent major bearish run. In the event of a double-bottom bounce, the initial upside target resides around the potential double-bottom peak in the 1.3145 resistance region.
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/08/30) GBP/JPY Pulls Back Up then Drops
(Please click on the forex chart thumbnail to enlarge)
8/30/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – GBP/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Monday (8/30/2010) has pulled back up to the lower border of the large rising wedge formation that it broke down last week, before reasserting its bearish stance today. The low that was reached on the wedge breakdown before pullback was in the 128.75 price region, around a 3-month low for the pair. This occurs within the context of a long-term parallel downtrend channel extending back to the August 2009 high. In the event that price furthers its bearish trend momentum to break below the 128.75 low, a key downside support target resides around the long-term 126.70 low just hit in May. Any strong breakdown below that level would confirm a downtrend continuation. In terms of key long-term technical support in the event of a breakdown below that level, price would not be too far off from the all-time low at 118.80 hit in January 2009.
(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2010/08/29) Key Forex Technical Trading Levels
8/29/2010 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – Here are some key forex support and resistance levels for the upcoming trading week. These technical levels are price areas/regions that forex traders should be paying close attention to, and around which significant technical trading events could likely occur.EUR/USD – Resistance: 1.2777, Support: 1.2586
GBP/USD – Resistance: 1.5616, Support: 1.5370
USD/JPY – Resistance: 86.40, Support: 83.58
USD/CHF – Resistance: 1.0463, Support: 1.0219
AUD/USD – Resistance: 0.9078, Support: 0.8770
USD/CAD – Resistance: 1.0666, Support: 1.0443
SPOT GOLD – Resistance: 1244, Support: 1210
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).