Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/11/01) EUR/USD Bearish Correction of Bullish Correction
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11/01/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Tuesday (11/01/2011) has dropped precipitously since the beginning of this trading week from its high last week around key 1.4250 resistance (also the underside of the major uptrend support line extending from the June 2010 low). This dramatic fall broke down below several key levels, including 1.4000 and 1.3830, and occurs after a steep bullish run of over 1100 pips that extended through most of the month of October. Now that the pair has lost more than 50% of the gains it made in October, price action is once again targeting key downside support around the 1.3500 price region. If price can further its bearish momentum with a breakdown below 1.3500, key further downside in the direction of a bearish trend continuation resides around the 1.3150 level (the region of the last major low in early October) and then the important 1.3000 psychological level.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/31) EUR/CHF Continues Bearish Downturn Within Long-Term Downtrend
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10/31/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – EUR/CHF (daily chart) as of Monday (10/31/2011) has continued its fall towards the significant 1.2000 psychological support level after having turned down two weeks ago from an important long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the December 2009 high and the key 1.2400 price region. After having hit the high above 1.2400 two weeks ago, price action broke down below a steep uptrend support line extending from the early August low just above parity (1.0000). The fact that the pair both respected the long-term downtrend resistance line as well as almost simultaneously broke down below the counter-trend uptrend support line, stands as a significant bearish trend indication. With upside resistance continuing to reside around the noted long-term downtrend resistance line, the key downside support target to watch continues to reside around the 1.2000 support/resistance psychological level.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/27) USD/CHF Follows Through on Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Breakdown
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10/27/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Thursday (10/27/2011) has extended its fall substantially after breaking the neckline of a well-formed head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. Thursday’s price action saw the pair drop more than 200 pips to hit a 7-week low just below 0.8600, approaching key support in the 0.8550 price region. 0.8550 represents a key level that has been respected several times in the past both as support and as resistance. With price approaching such low levels, bearish momentum off the reversal pattern could well extend further to the downside. In the event of a breakdown below 0.8550, price action could begin targeting further downside around the next key support level below, in the 0.8275 price region.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/26) USD/JPY Hits New All-Time Low Within Bearish Trend Channel
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10/26/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – USD/JPY (daily chart) as of Wednesday (10/26/2011) has hit yet a new all-time low below 76.00, reaching down to 75.70 in Wednesday’s trading. This bearish price action conforms to a bearish trend channel that extends back to the early April high around 85.50. The downtrend channel has prompted the pair to drop below successively lower support levels, including the key 80.00 and 78.00 levels. Japanese intervention notwithstanding, further downside momentum below the key 76.00 level within the current bearish trend could see price make its way down towards the 73.00 price level, a significant Fibonacci extension. Potentially more likely, however, price could soon see yet another substantial move to the upside, perhaps triggered by intervention activity, that breaks out above the noted bearish channel and targets the key 78.00 resistance level to the upside once again.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/24) GBP/USD Hits Key 1.6000 Resistance
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10/24/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – GBP/USD (daily chart) as of Monday (10/24/2011) has extended its rise up to the key 1.6000 psychological resistance level before backing off slightly. This occurs within the context of a steep bullish correction that began after price hit its 1.5270 low in early October. The current 2+ week bullishness has risen to more than 50% of the precipitous fall from the August 1.6616 high to the noted October 1.5270 low. Any subsequent further push to the upside that breaks above the 1.6000 level has an immediate resistance target around 1.6100, which is around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the noted 1.6616-to-1.5270 fall. In the event that price pushes even further to the upside above the 61.8% level, a potential new trend change could be imminent. In the opposite event of a downside trend continuation, a key immediate support target resides around the 1.5800 price region.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/20) EUR/CHF Turns Down from Resistance Confluence
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10/20/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – EUR/CHF (daily chart) as of Thursday (10/20/2011) has hit and tentatively respected a key resistance confluence that includes both a long-term descending resistance trend line extending back almost two years, and a key support/resistance line at the important 1.2400 level. Therefore, price is currently at a critical juncture. This occurs after price action rose dramatically (around 2400 pips in total) in a substantial bullish correction extending back to the early August all-time low just above parity. If price continues to respect the current resistance confluence, the next downside support target resides around the key 1.2000 price region, which is an important support/resistance and psychological level. To the upside, in the event of a breakout above the resistance confluence, the key upside target to watch resides around the 1.2700 price region.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/18) Gold Makes Tentative Breakdown Move
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10/18/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – Gold (daily chart) as of Tuesday (10/18/2011) has made a pronounced drop below its wedge pattern consolidation, which hints at a potential continuation of the bearish run that originated from the early September all-time high around 1920. This wedge pattern, which can also be considered a large inverted pennant pattern, represented a slightly bullish pullback consolidation that occurred after gold’s plummet down to the 1532 low extreme back in late September. After that low was hit with a strong hammer candle, price consolidated into a tight and converging three-week pullback move (that conveniently rose to around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the bearish run’s high-to-low), before making the current tentative breakdown of the wedge pattern. Further downside momentum on the current bearish move could go on to target the 1550 support region.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/17) USD/CHF Stalls Above Key Support within Uptrend
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10/17/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Monday (10/17/2011) has stalled above key support in the 0.8900 price region, emphasizing this level as the current price region to watch for key events to occur. At the moment, that key event has been a slight bounce that has highlighted 0.8900 as the most important support/resistance area within the context of the current bullish trend that has been in place since the early September breakout above the previous long-term downtrend. 0.8900 has served several times in the past as a turning point both as support and as resistance. A continuation of the current uptrend would be the likely bias if price is able once again to reach towards its strong upside resistance target around 0.9300, which is another key support/resistance region that price respected in early October, less than two weeks ago. If instead there is a strong subsequent downside break below 0.8900, the current downtrend will have been placed in serious danger of trend change, with the next major downside target around the equally strong 0.8550 support/resistance price region.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).
James Chen Forex Trading Seminar at the Traders Expo Las Vegas
James Chen will be giving a free forex trading seminar on trend trading at the Traders Expo Las Vegas, Nov. 17, 2011. It will be an information-packed session where you will learn one of the highest-probability approaches to trading the forex market. For more details, please click on the following link: http://bit.ly/qyJZZ2 .Forex Trading Technical Analysis (2011/10/13) EUR/USD Turns Down From Resistance to Target Potential Bearish Continuation
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10/13/2011 Forex Trading Technical Analysis (FXpath.com) – EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Thursday (10/13/2011) has turned down from key resistance in the 1.3830 price region. This occurs after more than a week of strongly bullish price action that has formed a significant bullish correction within the context of the new overall downtrend that has been in place since the breakdown below 1.4000 in early September. The 1.3830 resistance level, which was just hit on Wednesday before turning back down in Thursday’s trading, has served as a key support/resistance level in the recent past. If price action continues its bearish stance after having turned down from this resistance, the next key support level to watch to the downside continues to be the 1.3500 price level. In the event of a breakdown below that level, the key longer-term target on a downtrend continuation continues to reside around the important 1.3000 price region.
(Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT (bio)
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley).
- Click here for my book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley).
- Click here for my video DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market (FXstreet).